Predictions
Every forecast Bellwether makes is logged here with a probability, then scored when it resolves. The Brier score measures calibration — lower is better; always guessing 50% scores 0.25.
Loading track record…
Occasional deep dives on Alaska politics and power.
Every forecast Bellwether makes is logged here with a probability, then scored when it resolves. The Brier score measures calibration — lower is better; always guessing 50% scores 0.25.