Standards
Standards & Disclosures
Bellwether is a publication, but it is not published from nowhere. This page says plainly who runs it, how money and conflicts are handled, and what standards the work is held to. It is linked from every page.
Who runs this
Bellwether is written and published by Jordan Shilling through Alaska Targeting, a political consulting and data firm. That is the central thing to know: the person analyzing Alaska politics here also works in it, and has clients who are active in the races and issues covered.
Conflicts of interest
When a piece touches a race, organization, candidate, or issue that Alaska Targeting has a paid relationship with, that relationship is disclosed inside the piece — clearly, near the top, not buried. When a conflict is severe enough that disclosure isn't sufficient, the piece isn't published. The point of this publication is credibility; nothing is worth spending it on.
Bylines
Analysis and forecasts carry Jordan Shilling's name. Briefs and automated pieces are signed "The Bellwether desk"; Jordan Shilling reviews every one and answers for it. A pen name appears only with a reason, stated on the piece, and never on a piece that touches a client of Alaska Targeting.
Sponsorship
Bellwether may carry a single sponsor. Sponsors buy attention, not influence: they do not see pieces before publication, do not choose topics, and do not shape conclusions. Sponsored slots are always labeled "Presented by." A sponsor's existence is never a reason a piece is or isn't written.
Corrections
Errors get fixed openly. A corrected piece carries a dated note saying what changed and why. Substantive corrections are not silently edited away. If you think something here is wrong, email [email protected].
Sourcing
Claims are sourced to the record where possible — APOC filings, the Division of Elections, BASIS, public voter data, court records, and named or on-background people. Analysis built on data links to that data when the data can be responsibly shared. Ambient conversation informs judgment but is not reported as fact.
Forecasts
Forecasts are logged with an explicit probability and scored after they resolve using a Brier score, shown publicly whether the calls were good or bad. The track record is the accountability; it is not curated to flatter.
Automated pieces
Some briefs in the Automated section are machine-drafted from structured data events. They are labeled as such and signed "The Bellwether desk", and Jordan Shilling reviews every one before it publishes. The desk byline means a named person vouched for it.
Privacy & analytics
Bellwether measures readership with Google Analytics and PostHog, and its pages carry Alaska Targeting's advertising tags from Google and Meta, which let the firm show you its ads elsewhere online. If you give an email address to read free, your reading history here is linked to it. The privacy policy has the details.